In what might be the deepest and most unpredictable Big East Tournament field in the conference’s history, let’s take some time to break down each team and their outlook heading into the tournament this week.
One Seed: Pittsburgh (27-4 overall, 15-3 conference)
The Panthers enter the Big East Tournament as the top seed, winning the conference by one game over Notre Dame. This Pitt team resembles every other Pitt team that Jamie Dixon has brought to Manhattan during his time as the program’s head coach: experienced, physical, guard-driven, tenacious. The Panthers never get blown out of the gym, yet at the same time never blow out their opponents. This is a team that grinds out every win, and that is exactly the recipe needed to survive this week. However, Pitt’s first game on Thursday (likely against either Georgetown or Connecticut) could be the one that sends them home before the Big Dance.
Two Seed: Notre Dame (25-5, 14-4)
The Irish showed tremendous moxie at the end of their regular season, knocking off UConn on the road on Saturday despite being without Ben Hansbrough for the last eight minutes of the game and despite Kemba Walker’s 34 points. This is the best team in the Big East right now and is the team that no one wants to play in the NCAA Tournament. Look for the Irish to make it all the way to Saturday, as no team on their side of the bracket (with the exception of Louisville) should give Notre Dame much trouble.
Three Seed: Louisville (23-8, 12-6)
Louisville is the epitome of a dangerous tournament team: red-hot shooters, aggressive guards, high-pressure defense. If the Cardinals get momentum behind the leadership of Preston Knowles and Peyton Siva, no team will beat them in Madison Square Garden. However, this is also a team that has lost to Providence and Cincinnati this season, in addition to losing yesterday at West Virginia. All three of those teams are in the Cardinals’ pod in their side of the bracket, which will definitely be problematic for a team better suited for a deep NCAA Tournament run than a deeper Big East Tournament run.
Four Seed: Syracuse (25-6, 12-6)
Thanks to a late-season stumble by St. Johns at Seton Hall, the Orange qualified for the last of the four double-byes in the Big East Tournament. Jim Beoheims’s team is fortunate to avoid the first two rounds of the tournament, as this is a team much better suited for a three-day run than a five-day run in New York City. The main weapon of the Orange is the 2-3 zone, but every team in the conference has already seen the zone at this point in the season. Look for the Orange to be the first double-bye team to lose if St. John’s can make it to the quarterfinals.
Five Seed: St. John’s (20-10, 12-6)
If St. John’s can get past the winner of Seton Hall/Rutgers on Wednesday, the Red Storm should be the prohibitive favorite to win the conference tournament. The Johnnies are 4-1 at Madison Square Garden against ranked teams this season, and there is no reason to think that a team with ten seniors playing in their last Big East Tournament will not scrap and claw through every game this week. A date with Notre Dame on Saturday night is destiny at this point for St. John’s, as long as the team focuses at the task at hand on Wednesday and does not get caught looking ahead to a potential redemptive quarterfinals match-up with Syracuse, the only ranked team to beat St. John’s at MSG.
Six Seed: West Virginia (20-10, 11-7)
The defending Big East Tournament Champions come into this year’s tournament with three very impressive, hard-fought, consecutive wins: at Rutgers, Connecticut, and Louisville. However, the likelihood of the Mountaineers knocking off Louisville in the quarterfinals seems unlikely at this point. Bobby Huggins’ 2011 team may be as gritty as the 2010 version, but it certainly is not as talented or experienced. A tough match-up against the Marquette/Providence winner on Wednesday may be too much for West Virginia to overcome to then face a rested and hungry Louisville team one day later.
Seven Seed: Cincinnati (24-7, 11-7)
The unranked Bearcats are probably the most surprising seed in the tournament, ranked higher in the conference than three nationally ranked teams. Mick Cronin’s team has beaten Georgetown twice, Marquette, and Louisville in the last two weeks, arriving in Manhattan as one of the hottest teams in the league. Cincinnati’s size could serve it very well in their bracket draw, where match-ups against Villanova and Notre Dame seem destined to happen. While it seems unlikely that Cincy can get past the Irish, it is not out of the question, as the Bearcats have a similar profile as the West Virginia team that won the 2010 Big East Tournament.
Eight Seed: Georgetown (21-9, 10-8)
The Hoyas are one of the most difficult teams to figure out in the conference. John Thompson’s crew has tremendous experience, is well-coached with a unique style of game-playing, and has avoided bad losses all season. In contrast, Georgetown is stumbling into the tournament, losing four of its last five games and fulfilling its profile as the streakiest team in the league. If Georgetown can turn around its late-season woes and get on the right track against the Connecticut/DePaul winner on Wednesday, a run to Saturday night is possible. However, it is just as likely that the Hoyas will be on a bus back to Washington D.C. by 3:00PM on .
Nine Seed: Connecticut (21-9, 9-9)
The entire country saw what this Huskies team is capable of in tournaments during its remarkable Maui Invitational win in November. As goes Kemba Walker, so goes UConn. A win over DePaul on Tuesday should be a shoe-in. Additionally, this team certainly has the capability to run through Georgetown and Pittsburgh on the next two days of the tournament if their Freshman trio of Jeremy Lamb, Shabazz Napier, and Roscoe Smith can provide support for Walker. Even with their potential scoring spark, this Huskies team does not have the consistency to garner more than three victories in the conference tournament.
Ten Seed: Villanova (21-10, 9-9)
No team in the country that has already locked up an NCAA Tournament bid is struggling more right now than Villanova. Four consecutive losses and eight loses in their last twelve games have the Wildcats looking for some semblance of success to resuscitate their season. A Tuesday night game against an inferior South Florida team could be exactly what Jay Wright’s players need to turn their free-falling season around. If Nova can also get by Cincinnati on Wednesday, Notre Dame should be very nervous about facing this team after it has finally discovered its winning ways. Even though Villanova has the potential to give the Irish fits, the Wildcats are unlikely to get past the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament.
Eleven Seed: Marquette (18-13, 9-9)
No team better personifies the middle of the Big East than Marquette. The Golden Eagles have beaten Notre Dame, Syracuse and UConn this season, but also lost to Seton Hall and Cincinnati in the last week. If you are looking for a first-round upset, Marquette is the team most likely to be defeated by a lower seed.
Twelve Seed: Seton Hall (13-17, 7-11)
If there is one player in the Big East that can get the national attention that he deserves this week, it is Seton Hall’s Jeremy Hazell. Despite missing half the season due to injury, Hazell, a senior and a 2,000 point scorer, is the most dangerous Big East shooter this side of Marshon Brooks when he gets hot. If Hazell can lift the Pirates past Rutgers and catch fire against St. John’s, then the only thing that stands between Seton Hall and a Friday night game at MSG is Syracuse. It is not out of the question that Hazell can carry his team past Syracuse and their zone defense, but as Hazell goes, so go the Pirates.
Thirteen Seed: Rutgers (14-16, 5-13)
There are two Rutgers teams in the Big East: the Scarlet Knights at home at the RAC and the Scarlet Knights anywhere else. This season, neither version of the team has been that good. While many pundits believe that first-year coach Mike Rice is building something special in Piscataway, he is still at least one season away from winning a game in the Big East Tournament.
Fourteen Seed: Providence (15-16, 4-14)
Providence star Marshon Lynch scored 52 points in a game this season against Notre Dame…and the Friars still lost. That fact summarizes the Friars’ season: one star, solid effort, little progress. A one-point home win against Rutgers on Friday was the one thing ending their close-of-the-season losing streak. Even though Marquette is extremely vulnerable, it is going to take a special game from Lynch - and at least one other Friar - for Providence to make any first-round noise in the Garden.
Fifteen Seed: South Florida (9-22, 3-15)
South Florida’s three Big East wins this season are against DePaul (two) and Providence. Do not expect a fourth win this week.
Sixteen Seed: DePaul (7-23, 1-17)
DePaul entered the Big East Tournament two years ago 0-16 and won its first-round game. If they accomplish the same feat this year with a 1-15 record entering the postseason, Jim Calhoun’s post-game press conference